Racing

29/4/17

Yesterday was slightly disappointing with a small loss. Atty Persse just about got the job done after everything went wrong, but the double bet on Monarchs Glen took a fair chunk out of that profit. I thought Arctic Fire was going to do it approaching the last, and how Finian’s Oscar didn’t win, well, I’d rather not remind myself. Anyway, 2 for me on what is the last day of the jump season, and I’ll also give my thoughts on a few of the day’s other big races at the bottom. 

Haydock

2.05 – Champions League Betting at 188Bet Handicap – 1m

I’m going for the tracker horse, El Vip here. He was beaten a length in 3rd behind Oh This Is Us on his return at Bath a couple of weeks ago, and can race off the same mark again in this. He travelled really well throughout before just not quite finding too much at the finish. He probably just needed the run and should come on a fair bit for that. Should take some beating. 

Selection: El Vip 13/8 (General)


Sandown

3.35 – Bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 4f 166y

I know he was a bigger price earlier on in the week, but I still think Doing Fine is value. He’s can race off the same mark that he won easily off at Cheltenham 10 days ago, and must go close. He’d ran some good races in defeat prior to that win, including when beaten a neck by Rocky Creek in the London National here in December. He rates a fairly strong selection. 

Selection: Doing Fine 5/1 EW (Betfair)


Elsewhere:

Altior will probably win the Celebration Chase (3.00), but I certainly won’t be backing him at 1/3. Special Tiara loves it here, and Fox Norton has given the form of his Champion Chase win a big boost twice, so he should push Altior close. 

I thought Traffic Fluide had a decent chance in the Oaksey Chase (2.25), but I just wonder whether he’s one of those that just always stays on eyecatchingly, but will never actually confirm that promise. 

Over at Punchestown, Apple’s Jade will take some beating in the Mares Hurdle (3.50). If Karalee was in the region of 5/1 I’d probably have taken a chance on her, but not at 11/4. 

Meanwhile there shouldn’t be much between Mega Fortune and Bapaume in the 4yo hurdle (4.25). If pushed, I’d go for Bapaume to just come out on top, but I think Meri Devie is overpriced. 

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Racing

28/4/17

Had a day off official tips yesterday after Fayonagh did the business for us on Wednesday. Had a few small bets myself where I pissed away a bit of money on outsiders before getting it back with a fair bet on Great Field. You could do worse than back him at 14/1 for next year’s Champion Chase. Anyway, a couple at Punchestown and Sandown. 

Sandown

1.50 – bet365 Esher Cup Handicap – 1m 14y

Hardly original, but I like the fav Atty Persse. As I’m sure you’ll know by now, I do love a Frankel kid and this one really could be anything. He has been bought by Godolphin since his debut success, and the form of that is very strong too. I’d be disappointed if he doesn’t win this. His trainer, Roger Charlton, has started the season in good form too. 

Selection: Atty Persse 3/1 (SkyBet)


2.55 – bet365 Classic Trial (Group 3) – 1m 2f 7y

Another winner for Frankel inbound here. Now he does have 3 of the 5 runners, which are also the top 3 in the betting, but it’s Monarchs Glen that wins this. His comeback run at Kempton when he blew away a decent enough field in a handicap off a mark of 87 was breathtaking. He’s similar to Atty Persse in the fact he really could be anything, and it’d be a shock if he’s beaten here. Frankuus and Cunco are no mugs, but they really shouldn’t be getting near Monarchs Glen, especially with John Gosden on fire. 

Selection: Monarchs Glen EVS (Betfred) (DOUBLE STAKE)


Punchestown 

5.30 – BETDAQ Punchestown Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m

It’s very disappointing that we don’t get to see Annie Power lift the roof off with a win in this. It’s such a shame that we’ll probably never see her again. But we’ve still got a decent enough race with Petit Mouchoir as the 10/3 fav. I can’t have him personally. He always runs his race but I just don’t think he’s capable of winning a strong Grade 1 like this. Yes, he’s already won 2 Grade 1s this season, but Nichols Canyon was well below par on both occasions and he only beat a total of 7 rivals in those 2 wins. Ruby has chosen Vroum Vroum Mag, but she’s not been at her best on either of her last 2 starts, which she will need to be to win this. She probably needs a career best. My Tent Or Yours won’t be too far away, but he’ll probably just stay on into 2nd or 3rd. Brain Power was found out in the Champion Hurdle. Instead, I think Ruby has chosen wrong as I like Arctic Fire, who after 15 months off won the County Hurdle off top weight. You’ve got to be a serious horse to do that. He wasn’t even expected to go to Cheltenham a week before the race, so you’ve got to think he should improve for that run too. Let’s not forget he was seriously mixing it with Faugheen and Hurricane Fly a couple of years ago and may not even need to be back to his best to win this. 

Selection: Arctic Fire 5/1 (Betfair) 


6.05 – Tattersalls Ireland Champion Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 4f

In all honesty this didn’t take me long. Finian’s Oscar wins this. He looks an absolute star and would’ve won the Neptune had he not been injured in my opinion. Instead, he made easy work of the Grade 1 at Aintree. Everything that Tizzard, Power and the Potts team up with at the moment seems to be winning, and this is another to add to their list. I’m also a huge fan of Death Duty. I was on him at 33/1 for the Albert Bartlett, so it was a bit of an anticlimax for him to run like he did. But Elliott adores him and whilst the drop back in trip should help him, I don’t think he wants the ground this quick. He will go right to the top over fences though. Let’s Dance I think is the main danger to Finian’s Oscar. She won that Mares’ Novice at Cheltenham so easily but she was disappointing when beaten by Augusta Kate only a couple of weeks ago. If Mullins wasn’t going all out to defend his trainer’s title, I don’t think we’d be seeing her here today after a hard race just 2 weeks ago. Bacardys is a Grade 1 winner, but it was a poor Deloitte and I’d be very surprised if any of the others are involved at the finish. 

Selection: Finian’s Oscar 15/8 (Betfair)

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Racing

26/4/17

It’s been a quiet few days on the betting front, but I’m back with 2 bets for the second day of Punchestown. 

Punchestown

4.55 – Irish Daily Mirror Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m

This looks a pretty decent race, though it’d be a surprise should the winner come from outside the top 2 in the betting. Penhill is generally fav, and comes here on the back of causing a shock in the Albert Bartlett. He travelled incredibly well that day, and won easily despite being impeded at the second last. But despite that, he’s still rated 6lb lower than Presenting Percy who also comes here on the back of a Cheltenham win. You’ve got to be a serious horse to win the Pertemps off 11-11, and definitely deserves a crack at this. He’s rated 44lb higher than when winning his Galway maiden hurdle in October, and there’s nothing to suggest that improvement will stop here. He’s the one to beat. 

Selection: Presenting Percy 11/4 (General)


6.05 – Racing Post Champion I.N.H Flat Race (Grade 1) – 2m

Despite there only being 7 runners, this looks a proper race. But I’m going to stick with Fayonagh, who I put up at 14/1 when she won the Champion Bumper. It was clear from her Fairyhouse rout that she was very good, and her win at Cheltenham was incredible. How she won that from so far back I’ll never know. Poli Roi was sold for £300,000 after winning his point, and easily won a bumper at Navan in February. But Codd would’ve had the choice to ride him and has chosen Fayonagh instead, and with him going all out for the amateur title you’d have to think she’s Gordon Elliott’s best chance of winning this. Carter McKay perhaps didn’t like the big field at Cheltenham, and whilst he may prefer this I’ve never really liked him. Paloma Blue certainly looked well above average when giving Henry de Bromhead an incredibly rare Bumper winner at Fairyhouse, but like most of his you’d think he’s going to need a fence to mix it at the very top level. I think the main danger here is Someday for Jessica Harrington. She’s absolutely flying in the last month or so. It looked a good race he won at Leopardstown, as Mullins thought Voix Des Tiep was a good one. Someday was then well supported in the days leading up to the Champion Bumper before being made a NR on the morning of the race, so whilst he’s fresh, he’s going to have to be very good to beat Fayonagh. 

Selection: Fayonagh 2/1 (SkyBet)

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Racing

22/4/17

Thursday was much, much better with 8pts profit thanks to Eminent and UAE Prince. There’s plenty on today but I’ve limited it to just the 2 bets at Newbury but will also give my thoughts on the other ITV races at the bottom of this blog. 

Newbury

1.55 – Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (Registered as The John Porter Stakes) (Group 3) – 1m 4f 5y

Looks to be a decent renewal this year, with Midterm heading the market at around 9/4. He was the favourite for the Derby this time last year, before picking up an injury in the Dante. Now he did look like he still retained ability when 2nd in the Niel before a decent run in the Champion Stakes, but he’s surely going to need this. And even if he’s fit, I think he’s vulnerable to one, which I’ll get to later. Dal Harraild was very progressive last year, signing off with a Listed win, but he’s going to need a fair bit more here. He’s capable of it, but he’s the same price as my pick, and I’d have mine every day of the week. Muntahaa and Chemical Charge met earlier in the season at Doncaster, with Chemical Charge winning fairly easily. Muntahaa will come on for that and did have to concede weight that day, but I’d be surprised if either of them won this. Instead, I’ve gone for Crimean Tatar. I fucking love this horse. He beat Chemical Charge in a Listed race at Kempton in November, which I remember very fondly due to having a sizeable bet on him that day. He was second last 2f out, before swooping down the nearside to win very impressively (if you havent seen it, make sure to have a quick watch on Sporting Life). He achieved a rating of 109 for that, which is huge after just 2 starts. Hugo Palmer thought of this horse as a serious Derby/St Leger contender, but he was ruled out of those with injury. Nonetheless, he’s a huge talent and will be winning Group 1s this season. I’ll even go as far to say he’ll win an Ascot Gold Cup at some point. That’s how much I rate this colt. I’d be disappointed if he doesn’t win this. 

Selection: Crimean Tatar 9/2 (General)


3.05 – JLT Greenham Stakes (Group 3) – 7f

Aidan O’Brien brings one over in the shape of War Secretary, who won a Listed race at Condalk last week. But he’s a 3yo by War Front. I’d rather back a pig. Zainhom is interesting for Sir Michael Stoute, but like his stablemate Midterm, he’s likely to need this. I think Make Time is overpriced at around 12/1. It was only a Salisbury maiden he won but he did it really well, winning by 5 lengths and the speed figure was good too. I’m not sure I’d be wanting to lay 12/1. But I think the race is between the Godolphin pair, Dream Castle and Barney Roy. Dream Castle is of course by the best flat horse to have ever lived in Frankel, and made a good impression when winning when winning at Doncaster a few weeks ago. He does look to be very good, but slight preference is for Barney Roy. He won his maiden at Haydock towards the end of last season, where he left a huge impression on me. He did look fairly clueless for much of the race, but when the penny dropped, he flew home. He was well supported before the off too, going off 9/1 after opening 16/1, and off the back of that run I think he’s a serious contender for the Guineas. If 13/8 shots like Churchill aren’t your thing, I certainty wouldn’t put you off Barney Roy at 20/1. He’ll be half that price this time tomorrow. 

Selection: Barney Roy 7/2 (SkyBet)


Thoughts from elsewhere:

1.40 Ayr – Not a race I have a strong opinion on, but I’d possibly take a punt on Delusionofgrandeur, who is 3-6 over fences and may have a few lbs in hand. 

2.10 Ayr – Clan Des Obeaux must have a good chance here. The top 2 in the market had a proper battle at Aintree a couple of weeks ago, and there’s a good chance they’ll still be feeling that. Whereas this has been the target for a while for Clan Des Obeaux. 

2.30 Newbury – If having a bet here, I think I’d be having Rain Goddess EW at 8/1. She was slightly disappointing the other week, but can leave that behind her today. Definitely one to follow. 

2.45 Ayr – I’d probably take a chance on Hendo getting Peace and Co back here. If anyone can do it, he can. And at 10/1, it’s a price at which I’d be willing to find whether he still retains his ability. 

3.20 Ayr – Double Ws must have a decent chance of following up his Aintee win. 5lb rise is workable and he looks progressive. 

3.40 Newbury – Hardly original but Chelsea Lad wins this. I was gutted when he missed out on the Lincoln as was on at a nice price, but they skipped the consolation race to save his mark for a bigger pot. This is that pot. 

3.55 Ayr – Pin to the ready…and it lands on Vicente. In all seriousness, he’s back down to the mark he won this off last year. Surely has a good chance. 

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Racing

20/4/17

Yesterday was the best day we’ve had for a few days, with a whopping profit of £1.25! In all seriousness, at least there were some returns unlike the last few days. Still hoping for a much better day today however. 

Newmarket

3.35 – bet365 Craven Stakes (Group 3) – 1m

It looks to be a decent renewal of the craven this year, though the dead 7 removes any EW interest. I’ll start with the fav, War Decree. Now the form of his Goodwood win where he reversed earlier running with Boynton has clearly worked out well, with Thunder Snow going on to have a really good winter out in Dubai. He will also relish the fast ground, being by War Front. But it is War Front that puts me off him. They just rarely train on. The Galileo mares may help him, but I, like many, am not convinced by him at all when it comes to anything other than a 2yo. And War Decree is not even out of a Galileo mare. Rivet is given another go at trying to prove himself at Newmarket, after clearly not handling the track in the Dewhurst. But Haggas is convinced he will this time, and whilst I may be stupid for disagreeing with him, if he didn’t handle it then, why will he now? I just can’t have him. Larchmont Lad is a big player in my opinion, with the form of his Group 3 win here given a boost by Whitecliffsofdover yesterday. Hannon does also have a good record in this race, which is obviously something to take note of, but my vote goes to Eminent. He looked to have a fair bit of ability when winning here on debut in October, and Meade has given nothing but glowing reports about him over the winter. Whilst ultimately he may appreciate further, he didn’t look short of a turn of foot and he must have a chance. 

Selection: Eminent 8/1 (Bet365)


4.45 – bet365 EBF Stallions Maiden Stakes (Plus 10 race) – 1m 2f

Being a Newmarket maiden, this is obviously going to throw up a few winners. Hold Sway boats the best form in the race based on his 3rd behind Dubawi Prince at Doncaster earlier in the month. But that was on soft ground so he may not like this quick ground. And even so, the standard he sets isn’t that high. Instead, I quite like the chances of Rising. He caught the eye when staying on well to finish 5th of 16 over a clearly inadequate 6 1/2f. Judging by his pedigree, this trip is exactly what he needs, so the fact he managed to perform how he did over a trip almost half the distance of this race shows there’s possibly a bit of ability in there. At a decent price, he has the potential to get involved. 

Selection: Rising 14/1 EW (Bet365)


5.20 – Close Brothers Premuim Finance 40th Anniversary Handicap – 1m

This looks like it’s going to take some winning. There’s a possibility you could have half a stone in hand in this and still not win. Tricorn is a deserving fav, and looks like he’ll be contesting Group races in he near future, but I like another of Meade’s in here in Ernestsavroblofeld. Now I haven’t a clue how to say his name, but I’m hoping the commentator will have to towards the finish! Now his mark of 85 may seem a bit harsh on what he’s actually achieved so far, but connections feel he is well handicapped off that mark. Meade also felt he was his best chance of a winner at the meeting, even above Eminent, so that needs to be taken note of. Ryan Moore, who has a good record when teaming up with Martyn Meade, is in the saddle, so hopefully that record can be enhanced. 

Selection: Ernestsabrovlofeld 10/1 EW (Ladbrokes)


Ripon

4.00 – Surely UAE Prince has got to be winning this? Now he’s not much of a price, and his draw isn’t ideal, but he’s just got to win. Surely. It’s interesting that Atzeni comes here instead of Newmarket, so perhaps that is a sign of the regard he is held in? That aside, he is an expensive, impeccably-bred colt who will surely take this before stepping up in class next time. He was touted as a Derby prospect by Varian this time last year, and whilst that plan didn’t work out, he still remains with significant potential to be a top class older horse. 

Selection: UAE Prince 6/5 (Betfair/Coral)

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19/4/17

Another disappointing day yesterday, but you don’t turn bad form around by sitting back and sulking. I don’t usually like to blow my own trumpet, but since I started this account in June, the total profit stands at just over £2300 to £10 stakes (results spreadsheet is my pinned tweet). So I will turn this bad run around, and hopefully that starts today. 

Newmarket

2.25 – Sir Dancealot 7/2 (Betfair/Paddy Power)

Oh the face of it, Sir Dancealot’s 6th in the Racing Post Trophy could be seen as disappointing, but he was a blatant non-stayer and travelled into the race really well up, before his stamina gave out in the last furlong. Whilst I believe his optimum to be 6f, he has won over 7f before and I’m pretty hopeful that after a good winter he should be able to see out the trip. He does have a habit of missing the break though, which he can’t really afford to be doing here. As a Frankel fanboy I do really like Seven Heavens, but pretty much everything Gosden runs at this time of the year tends to need the run, and this year has been no different. The same comment applies to Whitecliffsofdover, Aidan O’Brien’s first runner in England this season. So if he breaks ok, I think Sir Dancealot is the one they all have to beat, and the vibes have been strong from the Elsworth camp. 

3.35 – Poet’s Vanity 6/1 EW (Bet365)

This is a really good renewal of the Nell Gwyn, and I certainly cannot have Pamplemousse as fav. She’s only won an AW maiden yet is a third of the price of Grade 1 winner, Brave Anna…explain that one. I’m not sure Brave Anna will be suited by this step up to 7f however, and I do think her stablemate Roly Poly will reverse that Cheveley Park form. That’s due to the extra furlong looking like it will suit Roly Poly more, and the fact that she’s out of a Galileo mare (they’re both by War Front) so is more likely to have trained on. Sea of Grace is in the tracker after her 2 defeats of Eziyra when with John Oxx last seaon. She’s now moved to William Haggas, and whilst I think she’ll be contesting a few too mile races this season, she likes cut in the ground so the Good to Firm ground is not in her favour. So it’s Poet’s Vanity for me. We know she handles the track having won the Grade 3 Oh So Sharp, and Ryan Moore wrote in his betfair preview that he was really impressed with the way she quickened up past him on Glitter Girl. So she gets my tentative vote in what looks a decent contest. 

4.45 – Natavia 11/1 EW (Betfair)

Well she’s certainly bred to be good, being a half sister to 8 winners including Grade 1 heroine Spinning Queen. Her trainer, Roger Charlton, has had a good start to the season with 3 winners from his first 5 runners, including another debutant last week. Natavia is also entered in the Oaks, which suggests her homework in the last few weeks must have really impressed Charlton, so I’m hoping this daughter of Nathaniel can make a winning start to her career. 

Tracker:
I have 5 tracker horses out today, and have ended up not backing any of them! Seven Heavens is one, as is Daban (3.35 Newmarket), but it’s the fact they’re likely to need the run that’s put me off those 2. Sea of Grace like I mentioned earlier needs softer ground. Polly Glide (4.45 Newmarket) hinted at signs of ability on debut, but I’d like to see a little more before backing her. The last one is Ejaaby (6.45 Wolverhampton), but I thought Stoute’s horse was the most likely winner. 

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Racing

18/4/17

A disappointing day yesterday, but I’m happy we have some good flat action this midweek. I have also decided that every racing bet I post will be complete with a full write up on here. This is because in the last few months I’ve been getting lazy with my bets, partly due to working long hours, and results have suffered as such. By writing a blog, it’ll force me to make a good case for backing each horse, and if I cannot do so, then I shouldn’t be backing it. Anyway, onto some bets for Day 1 of the Craven meeting. 

Newmarket

2.20 – Contribute 12/1 EW (Betfred)

This looks a really decent little race here, and I’m sure a fair few winners will come out of it. Hopefully it’s Martyn Meade’s runner Contribute that wins this though. Meade has a very good record with his 2yos, boasting a 20% SR in the last 5 years. His pedigree suggests he won’t need much further than this in time, and I think he can go well. 

2.55 – Via Egnatia 6/4 (Stan James)

Via Egnatia is bred to be very good, being a half-brother to 6 winners, with his dam an American G1 winner. He was too keen on both of his first 2 starts, but shaped with plenty of promise on both occasions. He did settle much better here on his final start of last season, where he was sent the front and perhaps that’s what helped him. You’d imagine they’ll employ similar tactics here and hopefully he can use that very impressive turn of foot he showed last time. This looks to be his optimum trip too. 

4.05 – Salouen 15/8 (Betfair/Paddy Power)

I thought Salouen was a good bet here. His form is far superior to anything else in the race on the basis of his 3rd in the Racing Post Trophy, and his earlier runner up finish behind National Defense in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere on Arc day. If he runs within a few lbs of either of those runs he’ll take some stopping, and with Ryan Moore in the plate I expect him to get the job done. 

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