Thursday was much, much better with 8pts profit thanks to Eminent and UAE Prince. There’s plenty on today but I’ve limited it to just the 2 bets at Newbury but will also give my thoughts on the other ITV races at the bottom of this blog.
1.55 – Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (Registered as The John Porter Stakes) (Group 3) – 1m 4f 5y
Looks to be a decent renewal this year, with Midterm heading the market at around 9/4. He was the favourite for the Derby this time last year, before picking up an injury in the Dante. Now he did look like he still retained ability when 2nd in the Niel before a decent run in the Champion Stakes, but he’s surely going to need this. And even if he’s fit, I think he’s vulnerable to one, which I’ll get to later. Dal Harraild was very progressive last year, signing off with a Listed win, but he’s going to need a fair bit more here. He’s capable of it, but he’s the same price as my pick, and I’d have mine every day of the week. Muntahaa and Chemical Charge met earlier in the season at Doncaster, with Chemical Charge winning fairly easily. Muntahaa will come on for that and did have to concede weight that day, but I’d be surprised if either of them won this. Instead, I’ve gone for Crimean Tatar. I fucking love this horse. He beat Chemical Charge in a Listed race at Kempton in November, which I remember very fondly due to having a sizeable bet on him that day. He was second last 2f out, before swooping down the nearside to win very impressively (if you havent seen it, make sure to have a quick watch on Sporting Life). He achieved a rating of 109 for that, which is huge after just 2 starts. Hugo Palmer thought of this horse as a serious Derby/St Leger contender, but he was ruled out of those with injury. Nonetheless, he’s a huge talent and will be winning Group 1s this season. I’ll even go as far to say he’ll win an Ascot Gold Cup at some point. That’s how much I rate this colt. I’d be disappointed if he doesn’t win this.
Selection: Crimean Tatar 9/2 (General)
3.05 – JLT Greenham Stakes (Group 3) – 7f
Aidan O’Brien brings one over in the shape of War Secretary, who won a Listed race at Condalk last week. But he’s a 3yo by War Front. I’d rather back a pig. Zainhom is interesting for Sir Michael Stoute, but like his stablemate Midterm, he’s likely to need this. I think Make Time is overpriced at around 12/1. It was only a Salisbury maiden he won but he did it really well, winning by 5 lengths and the speed figure was good too. I’m not sure I’d be wanting to lay 12/1. But I think the race is between the Godolphin pair, Dream Castle and Barney Roy. Dream Castle is of course by the best flat horse to have ever lived in Frankel, and made a good impression when winning when winning at Doncaster a few weeks ago. He does look to be very good, but slight preference is for Barney Roy. He won his maiden at Haydock towards the end of last season, where he left a huge impression on me. He did look fairly clueless for much of the race, but when the penny dropped, he flew home. He was well supported before the off too, going off 9/1 after opening 16/1, and off the back of that run I think he’s a serious contender for the Guineas. If 13/8 shots like Churchill aren’t your thing, I certainty wouldn’t put you off Barney Roy at 20/1. He’ll be half that price this time tomorrow.
Selection: Barney Roy 7/2 (SkyBet)
Thoughts from elsewhere:
1.40 Ayr – Not a race I have a strong opinion on, but I’d possibly take a punt on Delusionofgrandeur, who is 3-6 over fences and may have a few lbs in hand.
2.10 Ayr – Clan Des Obeaux must have a good chance here. The top 2 in the market had a proper battle at Aintree a couple of weeks ago, and there’s a good chance they’ll still be feeling that. Whereas this has been the target for a while for Clan Des Obeaux.
2.30 Newbury – If having a bet here, I think I’d be having Rain Goddess EW at 8/1. She was slightly disappointing the other week, but can leave that behind her today. Definitely one to follow.
2.45 Ayr – I’d probably take a chance on Hendo getting Peace and Co back here. If anyone can do it, he can. And at 10/1, it’s a price at which I’d be willing to find whether he still retains his ability.
3.20 Ayr – Double Ws must have a decent chance of following up his Aintee win. 5lb rise is workable and he looks progressive.
3.40 Newbury – Hardly original but Chelsea Lad wins this. I was gutted when he missed out on the Lincoln as was on at a nice price, but they skipped the consolation race to save his mark for a bigger pot. This is that pot.
3.55 Ayr – Pin to the ready…and it lands on Vicente. In all seriousness, he’s back down to the mark he won this off last year. Surely has a good chance.