Racing

19/4/17

Another disappointing day yesterday, but you don’t turn bad form around by sitting back and sulking. I don’t usually like to blow my own trumpet, but since I started this account in June, the total profit stands at just over £2300 to £10 stakes (results spreadsheet is my pinned tweet). So I will turn this bad run around, and hopefully that starts today. 

Newmarket

2.25 – Sir Dancealot 7/2 (Betfair/Paddy Power)

Oh the face of it, Sir Dancealot’s 6th in the Racing Post Trophy could be seen as disappointing, but he was a blatant non-stayer and travelled into the race really well up, before his stamina gave out in the last furlong. Whilst I believe his optimum to be 6f, he has won over 7f before and I’m pretty hopeful that after a good winter he should be able to see out the trip. He does have a habit of missing the break though, which he can’t really afford to be doing here. As a Frankel fanboy I do really like Seven Heavens, but pretty much everything Gosden runs at this time of the year tends to need the run, and this year has been no different. The same comment applies to Whitecliffsofdover, Aidan O’Brien’s first runner in England this season. So if he breaks ok, I think Sir Dancealot is the one they all have to beat, and the vibes have been strong from the Elsworth camp. 

3.35 – Poet’s Vanity 6/1 EW (Bet365)

This is a really good renewal of the Nell Gwyn, and I certainly cannot have Pamplemousse as fav. She’s only won an AW maiden yet is a third of the price of Grade 1 winner, Brave Anna…explain that one. I’m not sure Brave Anna will be suited by this step up to 7f however, and I do think her stablemate Roly Poly will reverse that Cheveley Park form. That’s due to the extra furlong looking like it will suit Roly Poly more, and the fact that she’s out of a Galileo mare (they’re both by War Front) so is more likely to have trained on. Sea of Grace is in the tracker after her 2 defeats of Eziyra when with John Oxx last seaon. She’s now moved to William Haggas, and whilst I think she’ll be contesting a few too mile races this season, she likes cut in the ground so the Good to Firm ground is not in her favour. So it’s Poet’s Vanity for me. We know she handles the track having won the Grade 3 Oh So Sharp, and Ryan Moore wrote in his betfair preview that he was really impressed with the way she quickened up past him on Glitter Girl. So she gets my tentative vote in what looks a decent contest. 

4.45 – Natavia 11/1 EW (Betfair)

Well she’s certainly bred to be good, being a half sister to 8 winners including Grade 1 heroine Spinning Queen. Her trainer, Roger Charlton, has had a good start to the season with 3 winners from his first 5 runners, including another debutant last week. Natavia is also entered in the Oaks, which suggests her homework in the last few weeks must have really impressed Charlton, so I’m hoping this daughter of Nathaniel can make a winning start to her career. 

Tracker:
I have 5 tracker horses out today, and have ended up not backing any of them! Seven Heavens is one, as is Daban (3.35 Newmarket), but it’s the fact they’re likely to need the run that’s put me off those 2. Sea of Grace like I mentioned earlier needs softer ground. Polly Glide (4.45 Newmarket) hinted at signs of ability on debut, but I’d like to see a little more before backing her. The last one is Ejaaby (6.45 Wolverhampton), but I thought Stoute’s horse was the most likely winner. 

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