Had a few days off after Rehana absolutely pissed in for us on Monday. I did promise I’d post April’s P/L on the next blog but I’ve been busy so will post on Twitter instead at some point over the weekend. This is probably my favourite weekend of the flat season, and I’ll have a fair few bets for it as well.
2.20 – Longholes Palace House Stakes (Group 3) – 5f
The one I like at a big price in here is Goldream. He loves it at Newmarket, having won at this very meeting twice (including this race in 2015). He also goes well fresh, and whilst he was disappointing last season, it took him a long time to get over his trip to Dubai. He stayed at home this winter so that isn’t an issue this year. The faster the ground, the better, so he’ll relish the rattling quick ground and I think he’s a huge price. Robert Cowell has started the season quite well and I think with him getting his ideal conditions, he can run a huge race.
Selection: Goldream 20/1 EW (SkyBet/Hills)
3.35 – QIPCO 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
Well we’ve got a small but select field this year, but it’s still an incredibly fascinating race. It should really be between the top 4 in the market, so I’ll focus on those. We have 3 major trial winners in Barney Roy, Eminent and Al Wukair. Barney Roy won the Greenham well in the end, but despite backing him that day, I’m not overly convinced by that win. To me, 3f out he was in major trouble with the reopposing Dream Castle absolutely cruising along out in front, before Barney Roy really turned it on late on. But Dream Castle was a non-stayer in my eye, and was very keen in the first half of the race. If he’d have settled better, I think he’d have had every chance of beating Barney Roy. Now there’s no doubting this step back up to 1m will suit Barney Roy, but you could say all he’s beaten is a clear non-stayer, although a very good one at that. I am a bit surprised Dream Castle has turned up here though. Surely a Commonwealth Cup campaign is the logical option? Al Wukair was rather impressive in the Djebel when swooping from back to front to beat National Defense. Fabre speaks of him like he’s the second coming, and whilst it’s usually wise to listen to him, I’m going to do the exact opposite. Now I could be very, very wrong, but I think he’s been incredibly overhyped. Yes he’s beaten a Group 1 winner in National Defense, but it was a poor Group 1 he won, and National Defense’s trainer, Head-Maarek, had said beforehand that he’d significantly improve for the run. So in effect he’s beaten an unfit horse who won a poor Group 1. He also seeemed to get a bit outpaced that day too, which he certainly can’t afford to do here. Not to mention the fast ground. As a son of Dream Ahead, the chances are he won’t like it. Now of course he could be anything, but from what I’ve seen I can’t have him. Of the 3 trial winners, I prefer Eminent, the Craven winner. Now he’s definitely going to need further in time. If he wins this he’s going to be a superstar because I don’t think he’s hitting top gear even at the line over a mile. But with a couple of pacemakers in here, there’s a chance they may just go quick enough for him to come with a late run. Obviously a small field doesn’t guarantee that, but if they do go a pace from the off, I don’t think he’ll be too far away. But you just get the feeling he’s going to get outpaced coming down the dip, and just not quite having enough time to recover. He’s a serious horse though, as being a Frankel I’d have loved him to win…had I not backed something else. Anyway, enough with those lot, let’s get onto the winner, Sir Winston. Now there’s nothing not to like about Churchill. He’s done everything asked of him. He never wins by far they say. That’s just the way he is, he’s never going to win by far, but he still gets the job done. He’s not beaten anything they say. Well let’s take the Dewhurst. The 2nd, Lancaster Bomber, has since finished 2nd in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and 4th in the UAE Derby (on dirt). The 3rd, Blue Point, was impressive in beating Harry Angel in the Pavilion the other day, and only Caravaggio is seen as a more likely winner of the Commonwealth Cup by the layers. The 4th, Thunder Snow, has since won the Group 1 Criterium International at Saint Cloud by 5 lengths, the UAE 2000 Guineas and the UAE Derby, and has been sent Stateside for the Kentucky Derby. The 5th, Rivet, went on to win the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy. So all those saying the his form isn’t up to much are chatting utter shite. That Dewhurst form is bombproof. They also say he won’t win because he hasn’t ran this season, which again is chatting shit. Of course, there is the possibility that he may not win. But not running in a trial will not be the reason for that. Aidan O’Brien does this time and time again. He doesn’t often run his best horses in Guineas trials. Well I say that, Churchill has actually ran in the best trial there is, the Ballydoyle 2000 Guineas Trial. So he has ran in a trial, we just haven’t seen it. They also claim he’s the next Air Force Blue, which is utter bollocks. Air Force Blue is a War Front, they don’t train on. Churchill is by Galileo, they do train on. So that’s the end of that one. In short, I can’t see how Churchill gets beat. He’s got the pace, the trip is absolutely fine and a pacemaker will give him a lead into the race. He’s a machine and he wins this.
Selection: Churchill 13/8 (Advised on Wednesday)
5.20 – QIPCO Racing Welfare Handicap – 1m
Now this is probably one of the worst write ups I’ll ever do, but I just think Son Of The Stars is a good thing in this. His win at Chelmsford left a huge impression on me and he’s only been given a mark of 89. I’m in no doubt he’s a Group class colt and I’d be surprised if he can’t win this.
Selection: Son Of The Stars 7/4 (BetVictor)