Sunday was another decent day, with Frontiersman winning easily at 6/1. Intricately was disappointed in the Guineas though. Joseph O’Brien said he’s not even sure why she ran so badly, but it’s still been a good start to the month so it’s not the end of the world. It’s the start of Chester’s 3 day May Festival, and with it being my local track I’ll be there every day. Will be doing most of my punting on course which will be posted on twitter, but my main fancies will be on here the night before. Just the one on the first day.
3.35 – Chester Cup Handicap – 2m 2f 140y
I did a little bit of research into the impact of the draw bias in the recent history of this race, and whilst 8 of the last 10 winners were drawn 11 or lower, going by that stat it not game over if drawn high. That means those drawn 12 and upwards have accounted for 20% of the winners from 35.2% of the runners. So whilst you’d prefer to be drawn low, it is not impossible to win from a wide draw. Now it is a bit of a minefield and if it wasn’t the Chester Cup, I’d leave the race alone, but the one I like is Who Dares Wins. Of the last 10 winners, 5 had their most recent start over hurdles. Who Dares Wins last ran in the Coral Cup, where he ran a cracker to finish 3rd. 5 of the last 10 winners had also been to Chester before. Who Dares Wins pissed up here last summer, so we know the tight track is no issue. He’s drawn well in 7 (effectively 5 as the reserves don’t run), and with the cheekpieces going back on, I’m expecting a big run.
Selection: Who Dares Wins 7/1 EW (General)