2/6/17 – Oaks Day

I’ve had a little break from the blog in the last couple of weeks. Been busy so just haven’t had the time. Still a bit short of time today so this won’t be as in depth as usual, but this should just be a one off with normal service resumed with my Derby blog. 


2.00 – Investec Woodcote Stakes – 6f 3y

Going to keep this fairly simple, I think the fav wins. He looked a very smart type when he pissed up at Ripon. Hannon has a great record in this and I think he’ll take a lot of beating. Goes off EVS IMO. 

Selection: De Bruyne Horse 13/8 (Bet365/Betfred)

3.10 – Investec Coronation Cup (Group 1) – 1m 4f 6y

This looks a proper renewal, unlike the 5/6 runners we’re used to in this. Aidan has a wonderful record in this race, but Highland Reel ran a shocker out in Meydan, and whilst that was partly down to the ground, he’s too short a price. Idaho will more than likely need the run, although I’m quite excited about him this year. Similar can be said of Journey, who’s never won on her first start of the season. I did mention on twitter earlier in the week I thought the race would be between those 2, but all the vibes coming from both camps suggest neither is spot on for this. Frontiersman is bred to be very good, but it’s a big step up in class and has a fair bit to find with these. Instead, I like the Godolphin first string, Hawkbill. He absolutely annihilated them in the Aston Park. The winning margin doesn’t do him justice as he had that won a long, long way out. Now he does need a bit of cut in the ground, but it’s not going to be any quicker than good ground, and some very indifferent weather is headed Epsom’s way tomorrow. If that comes early enough I expect a big market move, and I’ll probably go back in on him. 

Selection: Hawkbill 10/1 EW (Bet365)

4.30 – Investec Oaks (Group 1) – 1m 4f 6y

Now if odds on shots are you’re thing, Rhododendron looks a decent enough one. However, they are not my thing unless I think they are bombproof, which I don’t think she is. There’s no denying she’s definitely the most likely winner, but she’s beatable. She was beaten in the Moyglare, and she was beaten in the Guineas. Yes, she didn’t get a clear run at Newmarket, but I don’t think she’d have won anyway. And yes, that form is very strong as we all saw what Winter did last weekend, but at that price she’s not for me. One reason for that is that this is not a weak race in the slightest. I don’t fancy Enable. She had the race run to suit at Chester, Frankie dictated from the front and whilst she’s clearly a very good filly, I just don’t see her as an Oaks winner. Sobetsu is very interesting. Now I do have a bit of a soft spot having backed her at 20/1 in France LTO, but she’s a Group 1 winner this campaign already. Any rain that falls will certainly suit, and I think she’s got every chance. But the one I like finished behind her in the Prix Saint-Alary, Coronet. She was positioned a hell of a long way back that day, before staying on very well into 3rd. She won the Zetland last year over 10f on just her 2nd start, so this step up to 12f should suit her no end. Now we may be playing for 2nd behind Rhododendron, but I can guarantee you Coronet won’t be stopping in the final 100 yards and I think she’s a cracking EW bet. 

Selections: Coronet 11/1 EW (Betfred), saver on Sobetsu 9/1 (Betfair/PP)


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